[INTERVIEW] 'As NK nuclear power draws nearer, Trump faces tough choice'

Sue Mi Terry speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., Nov. 14. / Courtesy of Global Peace Foundation

By Kim Hyo-jin

WASHINGTON, D.C. — In the game of chicken between the U.S. and North Korea, it is entirely possible Pyongyang could reach its goal of becoming a nuclear power with a capability to hit mainland the U.S., a top U.S. North Korea expert said Tuesday.

Sue Mi Terry, the senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told The Korea Times that when that happens, it could become inevitable for South Korea to consider having its own nuclear arsenal.

"If and when the times come North Korea completes a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach San Francisco or New York, the U.S. will face a tough situation, left with only two basic options: living with it and losing its capability regionally and globally, or using military options," she said.

"Whether there will be a war or talks will hinge on the North's call and actions."

North Korea may move to provide a "face-saving way out" for both parties so they can come to the negotiating table instead of engaging in a military conflict, she said.

"The North will make some sort of a provocative move and then simply declare that it has completed the nuclear program. But it should be carefully delivered as a little more provocative than normal but not provocative enough to invite U.S. military action," she said.

"The move should be ambiguous, not definitely prove that the North has completed the nuclear program."

Terry said North Korea's young leader Kim Jong-un is probably "smart" enough to know what the right distance was for a ballistic missile test just as well as to provoke the stakeholders of the peninsula in the latest provocation.

She assesses that Kim would take some sort of an action before coming to the negotiating table to be able to say that the North has completed the nuclear program.

For Seoul's part, it would be "reasonable" to start discussions about having its own nuclear weapons once the North fully goes nuclear, with its neighbor standing tall as a nuclear power, the North Korea expert said.

"To prevent the South from doing so, Washington should leave no doubt on their tight alliance and the U.S. commitment to protect South Korea and avoid the kind of remarks Trump has made, such as pulling out of the U.S.-ROK trade deal," she said.

Terry dismissed the idea there is a lack of coordination on North Korea policy between Trump and his top security officials, when asked whether different messages from Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson were a reflection of internal disarray.

"I also had the impression at first they don't coordinate well but now it looks as if they do," she said.

"While Trump seeks maximum pressure on the North but he does not look like someone who prefers military options. Well, no reasonable person in Washington prefers millitary options.

"They are seeking an exit plan while keeping pressure on North Korea."

She noted the Trump administration's comparatively hostile stance toward the North stems from a fresh perspective on the North's intention of possessing nuclear power.

"It's not acceptable anymore for them to deal with North Korea with a traditional deterrence and containment policy," she said.

"The administration believes the theory put forward by scholars including B.R. Myers that North Korea does not seek nuclear capability just for defense purposes, but wants to blackmail the U.S. and has as an ultimate reason to decouple the U.S.-South Korea alliance, kick U.S. forces off the Korean Peninsula, and seek unification on its own terms.

"So, Washington has determined it cannot accept the North to acquire the capability to hit continental U.S. with a nuclear-tipped ICBM. And while the North develops it, an increase of military tension between the two is inevitable."

Having said that, she said, Trump's hostile approach toward the North is more of a circumstantial response, not a grand strategy.

"Trump, for now, has no option other than to pursue pressure as the North rejects dialogue," she said.

She dismissed as speculation that their communication channels not functioning worsened the frayed relations.

"It's not a matter of communication channels. The North's current choice is natural from its perspective as it can get more leverage at the negotiating table when it completes the nuclear program."

Touching upon President Moon seeking balance in diplomacy between the U.S. and China, Terry said it is understandable but the U.S. cannot help being concerned about the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

"Moon and Trump have little chemistry between them and there is a philosophical difference between the two leaders when it comes to North Korea policy. While Moon's emphasis on the policy is engagement and dialouge, Trump's is pressure," she said. Under these conditions, she viewed Moon bringing the China factor along could cause an issue in the bilateral alliance.

She also expressed concerns about a possible anti-U.S. movement in South Korea, saying it could affect Trump's decision-making process.

"Trump is short-tempered and has a tendency to make policy decisions based on news coverage he sees on television. If South Korean citizens' anti-U.S. movement was broadcast, it could influence Trump's thinking negatively," she said.

"When North Korea and free trade deal issues are at stake, if South Koreans fan an anti-U.S. movement, it would not be smart. I hope they contain themselves for the next couple of years of Trump's presidency considering the current crisis."

Terry served as a senior analyst on Korean issues at the CIA from 2001 to 2008. Later, she served as the director for Korea, Japan and Oceanic Affairs at the National Security Council and was deputy intelligence officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council.

Terry is expected to replace Victor Cha, the CSIS Korea chair and designated U.S. ambassador to Seoul.

She spoke at the international One Korea Forum sponsored by the U.S. think tank EastWest Institute and Global Peace Foundation, Nov. 15, advocating the unification of the Korean Peninsula.